Apple Is Coming for Samsung’s Foldable Phone Crown: iPhone Duo Could Capture Nearly 25% of the Market With 5 Million Shipments in 2026, Says Report

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Apple Inc.'s latest iPhone Duo is set to capture 24.8% of the foldable smartphone market by 2026, making it the second-largest brand in the sector, TrendForce reported.

The report, released on Thursday, predicted that iPhone Duo shipments will reach about 5 million units in 2026. This would place Apple behind Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. in the foldable smartphone market. Global foldable smartphone shipments are expected to be around 20.2 million units in 2026, marking a modest 0.5% increase compared to last year.

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Excluding Apple, combined shipments from Android brands are expected to decline by more than 20% year-over-year to about15.2 million units. The drop is largely due to soaring component costs, which are expected to weigh on shipments across most brands, resulting in flat or lower volumes compared with the previous year, according to the report.

Samsung is expected to maintain its lead, with projected shipments of about 7.1 million units and a 35.1% market share. Meanwhile, Huawei is predicted to match Apple's shipments of around 5 million units, also capturing a 24.8% market share.

Apple's demand for displays, ultra-thin glass, hinges and device components could accelerate supply-chain technology development and mass-manufacturing capacity over the medium to long term, the report noted.

TrendForce sees 2026 as a year of structural transformation for the foldable smartphone market, with Apple's entry potentially prompting Samsung and Chinese manufacturers to rethink their foldable strategies. The shift could accelerate upgrades in technical specifications, drive cost cuts and boost innovation in AI-powered features and multitasking interfaces.

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On Wednesday, CEO John Ternus unveiled the iPhone Duo, Apple's first foldable iPhone, featuring internal and external displays with matching aspect ratios. The passport-sized device uses a precision-machined titanium frame and a hinge that keeps the inner screen flat when unfolded. It is the company's thinnest iPhone yet, with side-mounted controls for easier access.

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The launch of the iPhone Duo could trigger a massive upgrade cycle, according to investor Gary Black. The device, starting at $1,999, is expected to substantially increase Apple's average selling price. However, production limits may curb incremental earnings for possibly six months.

Furthermore, Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives said that the new foldable iPhone could account for as much as 20% of iPhone revenue. This is supported by Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management, who raised his estimate for the Duo after seeing the device, predicting it could account for 10% of iPhone revenue in fiscal 2027, up from 5%.

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Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/apple-coming-samsung-foldable-phone-123014181.html